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<!--l. 9--><p class="noindent" >It is Christmas Eve 2008. In a hotel suite in Chicago, President-elect Obama
is putting the finishing touches on the plans for his new Administration.
He returns from the outer office into his inner sanctum, and is surprised
to find a rather odd-looking fellow waiting for him. The visitor has long
hair down over an old-fashioned collar, bushy sideburns such as went out
of style when Barack was a boy, and a general air of being from another
time.
<!--l. 17--><p class="indent" > “Good morning; I wasn’t expecting anyone for another hour, but do sit down and
make yourself comfortable.”
<!--l. 20--><p class="indent" > “Thank-you sir, um, Senator. I’m here to talk about the Obama Presidential
Library.”
<!--l. 23--><p class="indent" > “Bit soon, isn’t it, I’m not yet inaugurated as President. Anyway, I assume you’re
an architect, right?”
<!--l. 27--><p class="indent" > “No, Senator, I’m more of a concept person. We thought you should
start thinking about your legacy from the very beginning of your presidency,
sir.”
<!--l. 31--><p class="indent" > “Concept eh? Sounds like the vision thing – I thought we presidents weren’t so
good at that”
<!--l. 34--><p class="indent" > “Perhaps we could start with imagining the experience of a visitor to your
presidential library in say 2050. What is going to be the key part of that
experience, or to put it differently, what is to be the theme of the Obama
Library.”
<!--l. 39--><p class="indent" > “Well that’s gotta be that I was the first black president, I mean that will
trump all, no matter what my actual accomplishments might turn out to
be.”
<!--l. 43--><p class="indent" > “We think not, sir. You see by then America will have changed even more, so
we’ll be into double-bangers, such as first female Hispanic president and so
on. No, sir, first African-American won’t cut it. What’s going to be the
defining issue for Americans in 2050? – thinking about that will help focus the
discussion.”
<!--l. 50--><p class="indent" > “Well, I guess it will be the same old, same old won’t it? Like secure employment,
safe neighborhoods, proper education for the kids, affordable health care, the usual
suspects.”
<!--l. 54--><p class="indent" > “Senator, the thing on everyone’s mind in 2050 will be the inexorable march of
global warming, and all the complications it will be causing, like food shortages in
the developing world, and a decades-long drought in the US south-west that is
starting to threaten the mid-west. And of course the unsettling question of where it
will all end.”
<!--l. 61--><p class="indent" > “Global warming? Climate change, you mean. But by then cap and trade and all
that will be in force, won’t it, and CO2 emissions will be declining.”
<!--l. 65--><p class="indent" > “Senator, that’s going to be too little too late. What we’re suggesting is that the
visitors to your library in 2050 won’t be concerned about global warming at
all, because they’re on their way to pay respects to the man who stopped
it.”
<!--l. 71--><p class="indent" > “Stop global warming? No single country, let alone individual can do that. It’ll
have to be an international effort.”
<!--l. 75--><p class="indent" > “And there’s some other problems you can fix at the same time. Like energy
security for America, putting the awkward squad - Chavez of Venuezela, Putin of
Russia, and whoever is really running Iran – in place, and then there’s kick-starting
the economy.”
<!--l. 81--><p class="indent" > “I’m going to be president, not superman. Where’s all this heading?”
<!--l. 84--><p class="indent" > “The idea is to have a carbon tax at a rate of ten dollars per barrel of crude oil,
increasing at two cents a day until CO2 levels start to drop. Plus imposing an
equivalent tax on natural gas and coal. And delayed for five years for domestic
production. You’ll probably want to include Mexico, Trinidad and Canada as part of
domestic production, keeping things quiet in the neighborhood. The idea is to give a
clear signal to the renewable energy industry that the price of fossil fuel is
going to rise no matter what so they can safely invest in innovation and new
production.”
<!--l. 94--><p class="indent" > “Okay, I can see how that works for energy security, and presumably you expect
an investment boom in renewable energy to get the domestic economy up off the
floor. But it’s still going to mean expensive energy for the US business sector, putting
us at a disadvantage to foreign firms.”
<!--l. 100--><p class="indent" > “The other component of your Energy Security Program, or ESP, is to announce
that goods and services from any country that has a higher per capita carbon
footprint than America will be subject to a 10% import duty, increasing at 1% per
year. This will include outsourcing, and will be announced as a measure to prevent us
from importing another country’s pollution, even though it will actually have the
effect of bringing jobs home.”
<!--l. 108--><p class="indent" > “Very cute. But our carbon footprint is so much higher than anyone else’s - it’ll be
years before that makes any difference.”
<!--l. 112--><p class="indent" > “Canada and Norway are right up there with us, and some of the Gulf states
are even higher, so they might need a bit of time to adjust. But if we look
at Japan and Germany, they’re about half our footprint, with declining
or nearly so populations, so at first glance we’d have to agree with you.
But US industry and society can adapt much faster than other countries,
and we have an increasing population, so they have only about ten years
notice to start cutting fossil fuel usage. China, at about a quarter of our
level of carbon per capita is rapidly increasing its coal consumption, so they
will have to start changing fairly soon as well. We’re giving everyone fair
warning.”
<!--l. 124--><p class="indent" > “And your awkward squad, which one way or another could include a lot of oil
producing countries – how are they going to be tamed?”
<!--l. 128--><p class="indent" > “The effect of your ESP will be to cut demand for oil as users move quickly to
increase efficiency and find alternatives, and not just here in the US; other countries
will have to follow suit. So the paradoxical effect of increasing prices by a tax will be
to send oil prices down the toilet for producers. And for the games that the awkward
like to play, you need money, and lots of it. Low oil prices means no money for them,
no more disruptive behavior”
<!--l. 136--><p class="indent" > “What about reaction from other countries, like all this new internationalism
that’s supposed to be in vogue. This will be seen as American unilateralism all over
again.”
<!--l. 140--><p class="indent" > “That’s a good point, Senator. The Europeans will have their noses right out of
joint. They’re the ones who are supposed to occupy the moral high ground on
stopping global warming – and everything else. But they’ll tag along, as they won’t
have to do anything straight away, so they’ll have lots of time for high-level meetings,
conferences and travel to interesting places while they get a unified response
together.
<!--l. 149--><p class="indent" > “The Japanese will panic, as they will be forced into making decisions. The
Canadian government will be delighted, as then they can force through change and
blame it on us; and that will be pretty much how it plays out everywhere – outrage
in public, secretly pleased that unpopular taxes and so on can be blamed on the
Americans.”
<!--l. 156--><p class="indent" > There was a long pause while President-elect Obama considered the proposition.
Then came the obvious questions.
<!--l. 159--><p class="indent" > “What if this carbon tax doesn’t lower well-head prices for the producers; the tax
on top of $150 a barrel oil would cause another Depression. And how much will it
bring in, anyway?”
<!--l. 164--><p class="indent" > “We think about $50 billion a year – peanuts really. And yes, you would have to
have an out so that if well-head prices exceed the reference price, which is $100 a
barrel plus the tax, then you could reduce or remove the tax until the ratio
reverses.
<!--l. 170--><p class="indent" > “And, sir, we think there are some other initiatives that might help sell the tax.
For a start you should instruct the Army Corp of Engineers to begin feasibility
studies for sea walls to protect the major cities and harbors of the US; plans for 30
foot high levees across Long Island Sound and San Francisco harbor will help focus
minds no end. And call on the nuclear industry to develop plans for standardized
fourth generation reactors that can be fast-tracked into production. They won’t
actually succeed, but it will keep industry quiet. And announce that NASA is to
cease work on manned flight until it has developed a sustainable energy strategy
that could support a team of astronauts on Mars for six months, including
land transport. The technology they come up with – advanced solar energy
units and energy storage – will have direct use here on a post-fossil fuel
Earth.”
<!--l. 185--><p class="indent" > “You know I’ve already had General Motors in here whining about low gas prices
threatening their electric car strategy, this GM Volt thing they seem to think
is going to stave off bankruptcy. I should be able to get them on board –
what’s good for General Motors and all that. And it might help drive a
wedge between that unholy alliance of the oil and automobile industries.
This is starting to look interesting. I still think the Europeans will be a
problem.”
<!--l. 194--><p class="indent" > “Well, sir you could invite yourself a meeting of the Mediterranean group
that Sarkozy has set up, and offer to help with planning the barrage they’re
going to need across the mouth of the Mediterranean to protect all the low
lying land, especially the Nile Delta. That should keep them quiet for a
while.”
<!--l. 200--><p class="indent" > “And if I don’t go along with this fancy tax plan of yours, what happens then.
Armageddon I suppose.”
<!--l. 203--><p class="indent" > “Every president since Carter in 1976 has known about this problem, but they
were unable or unwilling to do anything about it. Anyone of them could have been a
contender to save the planet, but they turned out to be losers, all five of
them. The only one we’ve got with us so far is Reagan, and he claims to
have known nothing about greenhouse gases, or about anything much for
that matter. As for you, sir, if you duck the challenge then you will be like
them, Mr Obama, just another old guy who wasn’t up to it, just another
loser.”
<!--l. 213--><p class="indent" > The President-elect wandered over to the window and looked out over the
brightly lit streets of the Christmas shopping season, with the busy crowds making
their last minute purchases. As he watched, the scene seemed to change, and became
brighter and sunnier. The window pane itself became hot to the touch. And now the
crowds had thinned out, people moving slowly and lethargically, and as
he watched some seemed to faint in the street, to be left lying there. The
temperature signal on the building opposite was reading 122 degrees. Then his view
changed again; it was winter, with great piles of snow heaped in the streets.
There were no lights visible, the buildings around seemed to be derelict,
and there were only a handful of people in the street, huddled around a
fire.
<!--l. 226--><p class="indent" > Puzzled, he turned to enquire of his visitor, only to find the room was
empty.
<!--l. 229--><p class="indent" > “That’s odd. I didn’t hear the door.”
<!--l. 232--><p class="indent" > Copyright 2008 Pat McLean.
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2010-01-27T05:49:57+13:00
2010-01-27
Blog
McLean
7
Obama and Global Warming: A Cautionary Tale
Ghost of Obama's Past
2010-02-02T12:19:50+13:00